Social media frenzy can help authors get book deals and greater progress, but will this translate into new book sales? Publishers are increasingly suspicious.

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Billie Eilish's book seems to be a good choice. As one of the most famous pop stars in the world, Ms. Eilish has 97 million followers on Instagram and 6 million followers on Twitter. If only a small number of people bought her book, it would be very popular.

But according to data from NPD BookScan, which tracks most of the printed books sold in the United States, about 64,000 hardbacks of her book of the same name have been sold since it came out in May-this number is not necessarily disappointing, unless Ms. Eilish obtains A large advance payment was made. Of course, she did. This book cost her publisher more than $1 million.

It is difficult to predict whether a book will be popular. A can of tomato sauce does not change much every year, so the demand can be reasonably predicted. But each book is different and is a separate artwork or cultural work, so when the publishing industry tries to predict the demand for new books, no matter how deliberate it is, it is a guess. With too few reliable indicators available for viewing, social media followers have become some of the main data points that publishers use to try to make their guesses more informed.

When a publisher decides whether to buy a book, the author's attention has become a standard part of the equation. Followers will influence who gets the book transaction and how big the advance payment the author gets, especially for non-fiction works. However, despite their importance, they are increasingly seen as unpredictable indicators of the actual sales of a book.

Even having one of the largest social media followers in the world is not guaranteed.

"The only reliable part about it," said Shannon DeVito, Barnes & Noble's book director. "It's not reliable."

For a long time, publishers have been paying attention to the author’s platform—for example, does she have a radio show, or a frequent guest on TV? However, with the reduction of local news media and book reports, the channels for book promotion have also shrunk, which makes the ability of authors to help promote more important. When the author talks to her followers about a book she wrote, she is talking to someone who is at least a little interested in what she has to share.

"As the years go by, it becomes more and more important," said Mark Resnick, managing editor of St. Martin's Press. "Along the way, we have learned some painful lessons, that is, if the right people don't have the right books and the right followers at the right time, then a tweet or a post may not sell any books. "

Take Justin Timberlake as an example. His book "Hindsight" was purchased for more than $1 million, but when it was published in 2018, Mr. Timberlake was injured in his vocal cords and was unable to promote it as planned. The 53 million Instagram followers he had at the time could not make up for this. According to BookScan, since its publication three years ago, "After the Event Zhuge Liang" has sold about 100,000 printed copies, far less than the number of publishers hoped.

Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar from Minnesota is not a global pop star, but she has an important position on social media, with 3 million followers on Twitter and 1.3 million followers on Instagram. However, according to her publisher, her book "This is what America looks like: My Journey from Refugee to Congresswoman" was published in May 2020 and only 26,000 copies were sold in print, audio and e-book formats.

The editors of the Times Book Review selected the best novel and non-fiction works of the year. Here are some of their choices:

Tamika D. Mallory is a social activist with more than 1 million followers on Instagram. He received more than 1 million U.S. dollars for the price of two books. But according to BookScan, only 26,000 printed copies of her first book, State of Emergency, have been sold since its publication in May.

Journalist and media celebrity Piers Morgan's performance in the United States is weak. According to BookScan, although he has followers on Twitter (8 million) and Instagram (1.8 million), "Wake up: Why the world is crazy" has only sold 5,650 US print copies since it was published a year ago. (According to his British publisher, it has printed more than 190,000 copies in the UK.)

It is difficult to know why this happens. Sometimes, publishing and marketing executives say that what people post on social media does not match the subject of their books. Maybe these books do not provide any content other than the content already on Instagram. It may be that the author did not effectively push the book to his followers, or those followers (those who are not bots or paying people) did not pay much attention to the content he posted.

Or this book is not so good. Social media is only part of the reason why a book works or doesn’t work, just as it’s just one of the reasons why a book was acquired—the publisher is interested in Billie Eilish’s book not only because of Instagram, but also because of her. It's Billy Eilish.

To alleviate these problems, some book contracts now specify the number of posts required before and after the book is published.

Barbara Marcus, president and publisher of Random House Children’s Books, said: “In addition to listening to the broker’s opinions and reading the manuscript, we also want to understand the celebrity’s investment in this book.” In the best way possible, what do you think about this project, and where does it fit in with all the other things you are doing?"

Executives said that it is crucial that the industry is becoming more aware of the difference between the number of followers and their actual participation. Do they comment? Do they share?

Eric Nelson, the editorial director of Broadside Books, said: “Some people are no longer famous but still have millions of followers, or some people left their jobs eight years ago.” “The important thing is that people Why are you talking about this person? It's about the factors that drive participation."

A new dimension of this conversation is TikTok, which has become a powerful force in selling books. The successful "BookTok" title is usually driven by enthusiastic readers crying in front of their camera phones to express their love for the book, rather than the author's advancement of his own work. But the book proposal of the TikTok star is now sold out.

Mary Ann Naples, the publisher of Hachette Books, said that she recently encountered an author’s proposal who quickly built a large following on TikTok. Ms. Naples said she wanted the book, but its price skyrocketed.

"I am not comfortable going to those heights," she said.

However, there are many examples that show that social media followers do help sell books, such as Wally Koval's "Accidentally Wes Anderson", which is a coffee table The book contains photos from all over the world. These photos look like the set of a filmmaker, like a bowling alley in pink, yellow and blue. Mr. Koval's Instagram account, with the same name and concept, had more than 1 million followers when the book was acquired, and now has 1.6 million. The publisher stated that since the book was published in January, more than 100,000 hardcover copies have been sold.

Another well-performing book is "How to Work" by Dr. Nicole LePera, a holistic psychologist with 4.4 million followers on Instagram. According to BookScan's data, her Instagram profile says "I teach you to heal + consciously create a new self". Her book sales are about 216,000.

Literary agent Tanya McKinnon said that it is inaccurate to say that social media is irrelevant to book sales. But the truth is that the industry doesn't really know what it will do with any book.

"If we knew, publishers would not make mistakes," Ms. McKinnon said. "My whole position on this matter is, if you find someone who really knows, would you share their information with me?"